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US to use AI coalition deals to pressure allies on China ties
The strategy could involve letters asking allies to pledge allegiance or risk being cut off from US AI technologies.
Rabobank’s senior macro strategist Bas van Geffen said Washington is moving toward a carrot-and-stick approach in artificial intelligence, aimed at forcing countries to choose between a US-led AI coalition and a China-backed rival alliance.
The US approach could cut off countries that sign deals with Beijing from access to the US AI coalition, even though the framework is described as not binding, according to FXStreet’s summary of the Rabobank note.
The report also flags concerns around Kazakhstan’s dual participation, noting it could be treated as effectively backing both frameworks while the US weighs strategic autonomy, including the role of “gross domestic compute.”
Rabobank frames the push as part of a broader effort to limit rivals’ access to US frontier AI models and research, with the potential for the Trump administration to send letters to allies demanding alignment or threatening technology cutoffs.