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Cargo theft risk is harder to size as exposure shifts upstream

The article argues insured-loss totals may understate the true burden because large deductibles and reporting delays can leave losses out of portfolio claims data.

Reported · Written up by our desk · Industry & Deals

Risk & Insurance highlights that cargo theft exposure starts well before goods move, and that traditional sizing based on loss estimates and claims history can miss key parts of the risk picture.

The outlet notes that even basic estimates of what cargo theft costs the U.S. annually vary widely, with figures cited as ranging from $725 million to $15–35 billion, partly because different sources measure different things, such as reported thefts versus insured losses.

It also points to structural gaps in insured-loss data, including large deductibles and self-insured retentions, where losses up to a stated retention may not be counted as claims by an insurer even though the theft occurred.

Risk & Insurance further says threats have evolved, with theft going digital and moving upstream by exploiting shipment data and supply chain complexity before goods reach a truck or port, requiring a broader underwriting approach that connects past experience with current intelligence about routes, counterparties, and emerging theft patterns.

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