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Copper rallies as mine shortages tighten a structural supply squeeze
Copper has risen from below $10,000 per metric ton over the past year to about $14,545 per tonne, with supply constraints and power grid, AI, and defense demand keeping pressure on the market.
Copper is increasingly behaving like a structural supply squeeze rather than a typical commodities cycle, as mine shortages collide with rising demand from power grids, AI data centers, defense systems, and energy infrastructure, according to Sprott Asset Management analyst Jacob White.
White said the metal climbed about 50% over the past year, moving from below $10,000 per metric ton to roughly $14,545 per tonne, and continued to set records even amid mixed economic indicators. The rally has persisted, he added, helped by a weaker US dollar, mine-supply concerns, and demand drivers that are less tied to near-term economic swings.
Sprott cited continuing production undershoots across the value chain and lower treatment charges, which reflect smelters competing for limited concentrate. US tariff uncertainty has also redirected refined metal into the country, while Chinese demand indicators remain mixed and high prices have weighed on some fabricators.
As supply tightens, copper miners have started to reflect those conditions, with copper miners gaining 0.2% in July and advancing 12.9% through Aug. 10, and junior copper miners rising 15.1% in the same period, according to Sprott. White said concentrate scarcity is shifting negotiation leverage toward miners, noting that treatment and refining charges, or TC/RCs, have fallen to another record low as concentrate competition intensified, including after Antofagasta shifted mid-year sales away from fixed terms.
Latest closeCopper $6.606 ▲0.2%