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FOMC minutes, euro inflation data and tariff pause in market focus
Markets are also watching for euro area wage signals from the Eurostat LCI release, while in the US President Trump paused planned 50% tariffs on about $20 billion of Canadian goods for three days.
In the US, investors are turning to the minutes from the FOMC’s July meeting, released this evening, seeking more detail on policymakers’ thinking beyond limited forward guidance. The focus comes as three participants voted in favor of a hike at that meeting, and subsequent comments have indicated openness to another move if incoming data warrants it, according to Action Forex.
In Europe, final July HICP inflation is expected to confirm the flash estimates, with headline inflation seen at 2.9% year over year and core inflation at 2.5%. Wage developments are also in focus via Eurostat’s Q2 Labour Cost Index, while the ECB typically emphasizes compensation per employee rather than labor costs per hour, the outlet noted.
In the UK, July CPI data is due, with both headline and core inflation still above target at 2.6% after a disinflationary trend. The PMI suggests price pressures eased further in July, but energy price caps are expected to lift headline inflation toward 2.9% year over year.
Elsewhere, China’s overnight 1-year and 5-year Loan Prime Rates are expected to remain unchanged, and Action Forex tied the expectation to the fact that the reverse repo rate has not shifted recently, even as policymakers signaled room for easing. The broader macro backdrop includes President Trump’s announced three-day pause in planned 50% tariffs on around $20 billion of goods from Canada, plus fresh geopolitical headlines that have added uncertainty for Brent crude.
Latest closeWTI crude $82.40 ▲1.4%|Brent $88.59 ▲1.8%