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China reins in crude buying as prices stay above $90
Rystad Energy, Energy Aspects, and FGE NexantECA estimate purchases could climb by as much as 1.2 million barrels a day into late 2026, but still remain well below last year’s 12 million to 13 million range.
Resilient crude prices above $90 are leading China’s refiners to keep crude purchases lower than the pre-Iran war levels, even as estimates suggest imports are gradually edging back toward around 10 million barrels a day, LiveMint Markets reported, citing Bloomberg. Analysts highlighted that China managed to support the market through the worst months of the war by reducing fuel shipments and drawing down ample commercial stockpiles, which helped keep crude prices far below early forecasts. The focus now is whether China will return to the more aggressive purchasing seen in 2025. According to Rystad Energy, Energy Aspects, and FGE NexantECA, purchases could rise by up to 1.2 million barrels a day from the third quarter into the final three months of 2026, continuing a recovery tied to some Middle East flows resuming and refinery runs increasing. Even under the more bullish outlook, fourth-quarter purchases are expected at 9.9 million barrels a day, still below the 12 million to 13 million reached last year when China was building inventory. Energy Aspects analyst Jianan Sun said the key constraint is price, noting that crude averaged below $70 last year versus above $90 currently, a level that cools demand. Sun also pointed to challenges securing specific crude grades, including shortages and costlier Middle East supplies for refineries designed to run medium sour inputs, while domestic fuel price caps limit how much higher crude costs can be passed on to consumers, reducing incentives to pay up.
Latest closeWTI crude $82.40 ▲1.4%