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Study estimates China could meet 60% of drone demand in a conflict
The analysis using an AI supply-chain model suggests capacity expansion would not quickly close the shortfall due to the time needed to build new production lines.
A study published online in the Journal of System Simulation estimates that even with full mobilisation, China’s industrial system could meet only about 60.0% of its military drone demand in a conflict.
According to SCMP Economy, the findings were generated using an artificial intelligence model that mapped a multilevel supply chain from drone assembly plants to subsystem and component suppliers, incorporating inventories, production capacity, order backlogs, budgets and the ability to convert civilian factories.
The paper, led by Professor Zhang Jihai of the Beijing Institute of Technology, also concluded that scaling up production would not quickly eliminate the gap, because adding capacity would require time to establish new production lines.
SCMP Economy also reported that the study was published online on July 24 and that the team was affiliated with the National Defence Mobilisation Research Centre, a unit focused on defence mobilisation research.