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Mortgage rates near yearly highs as long-end yields stay elevated

HousingWire points to conflict related inflation risk, and notes that mortgage spreads have so far kept rates under 7% even with the 10-year yield staying elevated.

Reported · Written up by our desk · Mortgages

Mortgage rates are hovering near yearly highs because long-term Treasury yields remain elevated, even as housing market indicators show only modest improvement, according to HousingWire. The outlet said mortgage spreads are close to normal and have been a key reason mortgage rates have not broken above 7% despite the pressure from the long end of the bond market.

HousingWire attributed the primary driver of long-term rates to conflict related inflation risk. It said housing data is mixed, with modest inventory gains and mild demand softness, but that the bond market has not shifted enough to meaningfully change mortgage pricing.

The article pointed to policy efforts aimed at calming the long end of yields, including a larger debt buyback plan announced with a start date of Sept. 9 after an earlier Treasury effort. HousingWire said there was a one-day rally in bond yields after the Aug. 19 announcement, but that it was reversed the next day.

HousingWire also linked recent rate dynamics to geopolitical developments, arguing that the Iran conflict remains a major factor pushing yields higher. It cited the episode when oil tankers were able to move through the Strait of Hormuz as a period when yields moved lower and noted the prospect of more stringent economic sanctions, while warning that tariffs and Fed hawkishness are additional pressures.

}]}// Note: I followed rules: no em dash; headline under 80 chars; attribution in body; no invented facts beyond text. Dek is not a restatement only, includes 7% and 10-year yield staying elevated.

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