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Zloty faces pressure as Poland fiscal risks linger, Societe Generale warns
Societe Generale said further fiscal slippage could lift Poland’s 10-year yield above 6% and move EUR/PLN toward 4.35, after Fitch kept an A minus rating with a negative outlook.
Societe Generale said Poland’s elevated fiscal deficit and rapidly rising public debt could keep pressure on the zloty, with the draft 2027 budget likely to be the next key test for investor appetite.
The bank pointed to the possibility of additional fiscal slippage, which it said could push the 10-year POLGB yield above 6% and bring EUR/PLN back toward 4.35.
Societe Generale also highlighted Fitch’s decision to maintain Poland’s A minus rating with a negative outlook, underscoring fiscal risks despite what it described as a large, diversified, and resilient economy supported by EU membership.