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Kotak Securities sees Nifty 50 potential for a new high before 2026 end

The outlook hinges on sustained earnings momentum over the next two quarters, a pause in foreign portfolio investor selling, and stabilizing crude oil prices.

Reported · Written up by our desk · India

LiveMint Markets, citing Kotak Securities equity research head Shrikant Chouhan, said the Nifty 50 could still reach a new all-time high before the end of 2026 if several conditions hold.

Chouhan pointed to the index trading around 24,200, down nearly 8% from its all-time high of 26,370, and said a fresh peak is only viable with continued earnings momentum over the next two quarters, foreign portfolio investor selling slowing or pausing, higher government spending, and crude oil stabilizing.

He attributed recent outperformance in mid and small caps to stronger earnings growth versus larger companies, driven by operational adjustments, cost-cutting, and niche positioning.

Chouhan also cited higher crude prices and the West Asian crisis as external factors that have contributed to foreign outflows, currency weakness, and a narrowing risk premium, while large mainboard IPOs absorbed liquidity from the secondary market. He said broader market earnings showed about 6% year-on-year top-line growth and roughly 3% to 4% year-on-year profit growth, reflecting the slowest pace of profit expansion since the post-pandemic recovery phase.

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