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Nifty 50 could reach 27,000 by March 2027, CIO says
Ametra PMS CIO Karan Aggarwal also warned that elevated US and Japan bond yields and rich valuations could trigger 10% to 20% valuation compression for the index if global risks worsen.
LiveMint Markets reports that Karan Aggarwal, co-founder and CIO at Ametra PMS, expects the Nifty 50 to potentially reach 27,000 by March 2027. He said the outlook assumes continued support from earnings growth and a re-rating dynamic, with investors waiting a few quarters for the next round of valuation adjustment.
Aggarwal cautioned that markets may be underpricing key global risks, including elevated bond yields in the US and Japan, rich valuations across Asian and US markets, and commodity inflation. He argued that negative global signals could cause investors to abandon the next re-rating cycle, leading to 10% to 20% valuation compression for the Nifty 50.
He said there may be no EPS de-rating in India, but global pressures could still slow the path toward current valuation levels. Based on trends into Q1 and negative base effects from Q3 in areas like auto, banking, and metals, he projected FY27 EPS growth in the 10% to 11% range, versus about 15% or above implied by current consolidated Nifty 50 valuations at roughly 21 times.
The CIO pointed to the potential impact of higher rates and commodity costs, saying rising bond yields can quickly pressure equity benchmarks, and that commodity inflation has already reduced gross profit margins by about 200 basis points. He also said markets appear exposed to a potential 30% to 50% drawdown if negative developments occur, including earnings and valuation compression.