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$6.4B bitcoin options expiry on Friday could boost volatility

Deribit data shows about 81,700 BTC options will expire, with calls outnumbering puts and max pain around $68,000.

Reported · Written up by our desk · Market Structure

CoinDesk reports that roughly 81,700 bitcoin options contracts, worth about $6.4 billion in notional value, are set to expire Friday at 08:00 UTC on Deribit. The contracts are split between 44,639 calls and 37,061 puts, for a put-to-call ratio of 0.83, indicating more bullish positioning.

The same data points to several key strike prices that could matter most around expiry. The $80,000 strike holds $157 million in call notional, while $75,000 has the highest call open interest at $236 million, and max pain is listed around $68,000.

Bitcoin has risen sharply in the run-up to the deadline, with the article citing a move from roughly $62,000 to $80,000 in one week and a recent price around $78,932.95. CoinDesk also notes that market makers face greater exposure because a large portion of open interest is expected to be in the money after the rally.

CoinDesk quotes a market participant saying the setup includes nearly 20% of Deribit open interest expiring, a volatility term structure shift from backwardation to contango, DVOL rising by 30% relative, and a call-put skew turning from negative to positive, all of which could make Friday’s expiry especially eventful.

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