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Euro faces a 75-day seasonal sell window as inflation stays elevated
With US CPI running above the Fed’s 2% goal and energy driving prices, the euro’s bearish seasonal period coincides with potential dollar support if rates shift earlier.
A 75-day seasonal sell window for the euro is approaching, giving active traders a historical period when the currency has tended to move lower, Yahoo Finance notes. The article frames seasonal tendencies as not trade signals by themselves, but as a timing guide that can align with other drivers as euro technical setups develop.
The piece links the seasonal setup to the current macro backdrop. US CPI rose 3.4% over the prior 12 months through July, while core CPI increased 2.5%, with energy up 14.7% year over year. It adds that headline inflation eased slightly from June but remains above the Fed’s 2% objective, which keeps pressure on the policy outlook.
According to the article, the Federal Open Market Committee left the federal funds target range unchanged at 3.50% to 3.75% at its July meeting, while also noting inflation remained elevated and energy-related supply shocks were contributing to price increases. The Fed’s minutes also reportedly highlighted concern that prolonged above-target inflation could weigh on consumer expectations and future wage and price decisions.
The article says persistently high inflation could lead to rates staying elevated longer than expected or, in some scenarios, prompt consideration of another rate increase, which could support the US dollar and weigh on the euro. It also cites crude oil as a risk to the inflation outlook, pointing to oil’s continued rally after President Trump announced a new economic campaign against Iran and warned of consequences for countries providing financial support, alongside disruption concerns around the Strait of Hormuz.
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