Commodities
Home›Commodities›Energy Transition›BMI lifts its 2026 lithium price forecast, expects a p…
BMI lifts its 2026 lithium price forecast, expects a prolonged pullback
BMI expects Chinese lithium carbonate prices to average $17,200 in Q3 and $16,800 in Q4 after spot prices have already run above levels justified by fundamentals.
Lithium prices have rebounded, with the most active lithium carbonate contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange closing at 152,500 yuan, about $22,500 a tonne, up 11% from July lows, as a stalled restart of CATL’s Jianxiawo mine helped support the market, Mining.com reported. Despite the rise, BMI, a unit of Fitch Solutions, says the rally has gone ahead of fundamentals. It lifted its 2026 average price forecast for Chinese lithium carbonate to $20,100 a tonne, from last year’s average of $10,502, and raised its 2026 lithium hydroxide forecast to $19,600, pointing to persistent supply disruptions and resilient demand, especially from the energy storage sector.
BMI’s upgrade comes with a caution: current levels appear stretched versus what underlying fundamentals alone would justify. Chinese spot carbonate averaged $22,941 a tonne so far this year, and BMI’s quarterly assumptions call for averages of $17,200 in Q3 and $16,800 in Q4, implying a significant decline later in 2026, with the correction expected to run well beyond December.
Looking further out, BMI projects the market remains in surplus through the end of the decade, only tipping into deficit over 2031 to 2035, as underinvestment and project delays from the 2024 to 2025 price slump begin to constrain supply. The firm forecasts global lithium production growth of 13.2% this year, led by Australia and China, and says surplus dynamics strengthen closer to 2027, with Jianxiawo’s potential restart cited as a key swing factor, according to Mining.com.