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Dangote-backed refinery plan in Kenya intensifies East Africa oil rivalry
The proposed 700,000-barrel-per-day Lamu Island refinery would exceed the region’s current refined fuel demand of about 450,000 bpd, potentially shifting supply beyond Kenya.
Energy outlet OilPrice says Nigeria’s Aliko Dangote has agreed to build a $17 billion, 700,000-barrel-per-day refinery on Kenya’s Lamu Island, designed to process crude for Kenya and for neighboring countries including Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, South Sudan, and the DRC.
The refinery, described as likely to become Africa’s second largest behind Dangote’s existing Nigerian facility, would be positioned to outstrip East Africa’s current refined fuel demand of roughly 450,000 bpd, with room to supply markets elsewhere on the continent.
OilPrice notes the project is expected to be led by Dangote, with the initial plan first floated in early 2026, and contingent on Kenya, Tanzania, and Uganda reaching agreement on the refinery location.
The outlet also links the proposal to longstanding mistrust and rivalry among East African nations as they compete for energy dominance, including questions raised about Kenya’s President William Ruto’s support for building the facility in a neighboring country rather than within Kenya.
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