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Bitcoin bear-market signal returns as profitability metric flips bullish

CryptoQuant says its Bull/Bear Market Cycle Indicator turned positive on Aug. 26, after hitting an “extreme bear” low on Feb. 5 when BTC/USD fell to $60,000.

Reported · Written up by our desk · Market Structure

CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju says Bitcoin’s 2026 bear market is ending after a key on-chain profitability metric flipped to bullish, according to Cointelegraph.

The change came with CryptoQuant’s Bull/Bear Market Cycle Indicator, which is based on the P&L Index’s distance from its 365-day moving average. The P&L Index incorporates several profitability measures, including the MVRV ratio, NUPL, and SOPR, and the indicator reads bullish when it is above zero.

Cointelegraph reports that the indicator hit “extreme bear” conditions on Feb. 5, when BTC/USD dropped to $60,000 and the reading was -1.244. As of Aug. 26, the most recent date with full data, Bull/Bear showed a positive value of 0.042, placing it in its “bull” bracket.

Ki also pointed to historical accuracy, saying the same framework previously called the end of the prior bear market in early 2023, when upside returned. Cointelegraph notes that some market participants remain unconvinced by the latest signals.

Latest closeBitcoin $77,411.01 ▼3.5%

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