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Hormuz conflict leaves oil supply risk elevated as shipping disrupted
With Hormuz effectively closed soon after the 28 February 2026 strikes, the waterway saw far fewer than its usual 100-plus vessel transits per day, helping drive swings in oil prices.
The conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran that began with large-scale strikes on 28 February 2026 quickly escalated into attacks across the Gulf, with Tehran striking Israeli and US allies, and the Strait of Hormuz becoming a focal point, according to a Guardian Business timeline.
The report says Hormuz was effectively closed soon after the initial strikes, a development that can disrupt global supplies because, in normal times, more than 100 vessels pass through daily, carrying about a quarter of the world’s seaborne oil trade. The article notes that any closure or attack on shipping can push energy prices higher.
Over the following months, the fighting repeatedly shifted between bursts of combat and ceasefires or negotiations, with each diplomatic opening followed by renewed threats and renewed attacks. The Guardian Business piece attributes oil price data to LSEG and says it used Lloyd’s List Intelligence for shipping traffic, tracking traceable transits of cargo-carrying vessels over 10,000 deadweight tonnage.
To document the sequence, the outlet reviewed thousands of social media posts and drew on airstrike data from ACLED, while also noting that the strait remained central to the conflict and that the disruption contributed to swings in oil prices.