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Kalshi partners with The Weather Company to improve weather contract data
The deal will bring Kalshi’s real-time weather probabilities to weather.com users and aims to use market-implied probabilities to settle contracts more accurately.
Kalshi Inc. has partnered with The Weather Company to strengthen the data it uses to settle weather and climate prediction contracts, and to add market-implied probabilities as an additional source of weather information. The companies announced the partnership Thursday, positioning the contracts as a risk management tool for businesses.
Under the agreement, The Weather Company also plans to add Kalshi’s real-time weather probabilities for some users of its weather.com website and mobile app. Kalshi said the approach is intended to produce probabilities that can be used to understand what people collectively expect to happen.
Weather betting has surged on prediction market platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket, with traders and meteorological experts backing bets on temperatures, rainfall, and snowfall for specific places and dates. The report also points to a case earlier this year at a weather station at Paris’s Charles de Gaulle airport that raised concerns about vulnerability and reliance on official measurements.
Insurance Journal noted that trading in Kalshi’s weather and climate category has accelerated, with volume up 500% so far this year from a year earlier, and an annualized trajectory toward $1.1 billion based on the company’s data. The article says Kalshi is working toward broader adoption by demonstrating how the contracts could generate usable pricing data for institutional and business participants, including farmers seeking hedges tied to heat-wave thresholds.