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Australia lifts forecast for 2026/27 wheat crop amid rising export demand
The government expects 29.9 million tons for 2026/27, about 12.0% higher than its June forecast, while wheat production is still projected below last season’s 36.0 million tons.
Australia’s Department of Agriculture raised its forecast for the 2026/27 wheat crop to 29.9 million tons, citing strong winter rains that improved growing conditions, according to an update released Tuesday by the department. The revised estimate is about 12.0% above the government’s previous June forecast and would be the eighth-biggest harvest on record, even as production is still expected to fall below last season’s 36.0 million tons due largely to lower acreage.
The upgrade comes as a worsening Black Sea crisis tightens supplies from the Russia and Ukraine region, increasing demand for alternative wheat sources. LiveMint Markets, via Bloomberg, reported that fighting in recent weeks has constrained Black Sea exports, leaving buyers in parts of Southeast Asia and the Middle East to seek other origins.
The department linked the better crop prospects to an “excellent start” in most major grain-growing states, followed by above-average rainfall in South Australia and Victoria from May through July. It said most crops are maturing three to four weeks early, with yield potential described as well above average.
Analysts cited by LiveMint Markets said Western Australia wheat exports are forecast to be nearly 1.0 million tons this month, about 29.0% above the September average over the past 15 years. The department also forecast wheat prices to rise about 6.0% on strong domestic feed-grain demand and greater international interest in high-protein varieties, adding that reduced fertilizer use linked to disruptions across the Strait of Hormuz could lower global wheat protein content.
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