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Australia forecasts 2026-27 winter crop production down 12% to 61 million tonnes

The outlook is tempered by a regional split, with South Australia, Victoria and southern New South Wales improving while Western Australia and parts of NSW and Queensland lag.

Reported · Written up by our desk · Agriculture

Australia’s winter crop production is forecast to fall 12% in the 2026-27 marketing year to 61 million tonnes, which would still be the fourth largest crop on record, the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences said in a quarterly report cited by World Grain.

ABARES revised the winter crop forecast up 12% versus its June report, pointing to better-than-expected conditions across most southern cropping areas. The update reflects excellent growing conditions in South Australia, Victoria and southern New South Wales, offset by closer to average conditions in Western Australia and poor conditions in northern New South Wales and Queensland.

By crop, ABARES projected wheat production to decline 17% to 29.9 million tonnes, driven by an 11% drop in area planted, while still running 3% above the 10-year average. Barley is expected to edge down 3% to 16.4 million tonnes, 30% above the 10-year average, with barley area estimated up 6% year on year.

For canola, the forecast calls for 7.3 million tonnes, down 5% despite a 2% increase in planted area, largely due to lower yields in Western Australia. World Grain added that ABARES said uncertainty around fuel and fertilizer earlier in the season has not materially reduced production potential, noting farmers were still able to access inputs even if often at higher prices.

Latest closeWheat $781.00 ▲3.2%

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