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Weak 2026 monsoon seen pressuring India grain output forecasts
USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service cut its 2026-27 milled rice production outlook to 147 million tonnes and lowered the corn forecast to 50 million tonnes.
India’s 2026-27 grain outlook faces pressure from a weak and more erratic monsoon, according to a report from the US Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agricultural Service, outlining downside risks for planting and yields across most grains.
The agency expects the second half of the monsoon to remain below normal after a delayed, weak June followed by a partial recovery in July and faltering rain again in August. For milled rice, production was revised down to 147 million tonnes, compared with 154 million tonnes for 2025-26.
Rice exports are expected to remain unchanged in 2026-27 at 25 million tonnes, with monthly shipments reported as steady since early 2026 despite disruptions tied to the Middle East crisis and import restrictions in parts of Africa.
The USDA also lowered its corn production forecast for 2026-27 to 50 million tonnes on weaker sowing and yields, down from 55 million tonnes in 2025-26, while noting Indian rice prices should stay competitive as the government continues to sell off excess rice stocks to reduce government holdings to manageable levels.
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