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Brazilian real edges toward 5.05 to 5.07 as polls narrow

ING expects BRL to benefit from Brazil’s high real interest rates, with nominal appreciation possible if election polls move further toward Flavio Bolsonaro.

Reported · Written up by our desk · EM Currencies

FXStreet reports that ING’s Chris Turner sees USD/BRL drifting toward 5.05 to 5.07, citing election polls in Brazil’s run-off that show challenger Flavio Bolsonaro overtaking President Lula. Prediction markets still favor Lula, but the gap is closing quickly, ING said.

ING highlights Brazil’s high real interest rates and expects the real to outperform the steep forward curve. The bank also flags that additional poll movement toward Bolsonaro could translate into nominal appreciation for the currency.

FXStreet notes that Polymarket still places Lula around 7% ahead of Bolsonaro, and that the improving Bolsonaro position in polling is the key variable currently shifting expectations for USD/BRL. The article frames the move as gradual pressure rather than a one-day repricing, with ING linking potential currency strength to the election outlook.

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