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Conning says MGA premium growth will face performance tests in soft markets
Conning projects 12% year-over-year MGA premium growth from 2024 to 2025, while warning that long-tailed casualty underwriting outcomes can take years to show up.
MGAs have driven years of growth in specialty insurance, but a 2026 Conning report argues the industry is entering a period where staying power will depend less on premium volume and more on performance consistency.
Conning estimates 12% year-over-year premium growth from 2024 to 2025. The report cautions that in a strong market, growth can mask weaknesses in underwriting discipline, incentive alignment, and day-to-day operational execution.
As pricing softens and carrier capacity increases, Conning says the next test for MGAs will be whether risk selection and program oversight hold up when weaker programs, unstable relationships, or volume-first incentives start to show holes.
The report also highlights long-tailed casualty risk, noting that underwriting decisions made today can take years to realize. It says carriers are increasingly likely to look beyond MGAs sheer premium contribution and instead focus on reliable, profitable track records as MGAs take on a larger role in the insurance chain.