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Societe Generale flags higher India August CPI to 4.8%

The forecast would mark a third straight month above the RBI’s 4.0% target, with food and fuel inflation expected to remain key drivers.

Reported · Written up by our desk · EM Currencies

Societe Generale economist Kunal Kundu expects India’s August Consumer Price Index inflation to rise to around 4.8% year-on-year, up from 4.4% in July, which would be the highest reading under India’s newly launched CPI series, according to FXStreet.

The note points to persistent food and fuel price pressure, including likely acceleration in food inflation to above 6.0% year-on-year and continued upward contributions from items such as sugar, cereals, milk, eggs, edible oils, and selected vegetables.

Societe Generale also expects fuel inflation to firm, citing elevated global energy prices and lagged effects from earlier domestic fuel adjustments that keep the fuel basket exerting upward pressure on headline CPI.

If realized, FXStreet said the 4.8% print would represent a third consecutive month above the RBI’s 4.0% target and suggest India’s inflation dynamics are becoming less benign, with early signs of broader cost pass-through beyond a narrow set of categories.

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