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Gold trades above its modeled fair value, silver appears undervalued
Monarch PMS puts gold’s modeled fair-value midpoint at $3,922 an ounce, while gold was around $4,355 on September 8, about 8% above that midpoint.
Gold and silver valuations are diverging, with gold trading above a broker’s modeled fair-value midpoint while silver appears relatively undervalued, according to LiveMint Markets citing Monarch PMS.
Monarch PMS models gold’s fair-value range at $3,248 to $4,595 an ounce, with a midpoint of $3,922. As of September 8, gold was trading at around $4,355 an ounce, roughly 8% above the midpoint, and about 8% below the top of the estimated range. The firm points to a January peak of $5,589, which it characterizes as an overshoot about 22% above the upper ceiling of its model range.
The brokerage says gold subsequently corrected sharply and touched $3,985 in June, a level within 2% of the $3,922 midpoint. Monarch PMS interprets the June drop as stopping near fair value, with short-term and highly leveraged investors exiting and other buyers stepping in around that zone.
Monarch PMS also links its interpretation to continued central bank buying and highlights that, in its long-term model, gold traded below model value for about 25 years before closing the gap in 2025. It adds that gold moved beyond the entire modeled range in January 2026 before correcting back into it, while the valuation picture for silver differs because the metals are assessed through their historical relationship via the gold-silver ratio.
Latest closeGold $4,395.60 ▼0.8%|Silver $66.22 ▲0.3%