Home›Bonds & Rates›Inflation›TD Securities expects August core CPI to rise 0.19% m/m

TD Securities expects August core CPI to rise 0.19% m/m

The firm projects core CPI at 2.3% y/y and headline CPI at 3.4% y/y, with upside risk tied to tariff-sensitive goods declines.

Reported · Written up by our desk · Inflation

TD Securities economists Oscar Munoz, Eli Nir, Gennadiy Goldberg and Molly Brooks expect August core CPI to increase 0.19% month over month, citing services as the main driver while core goods help offset the gains.

They forecast core CPI at 2.3% year over year and headline CPI steady at 3.4% year over year, with risks skewed higher based on assumptions about price declines in tariff-exposed goods categories.

In their view, core goods are likely to continue easing after a recent uptick, including a projected 0.15% m/m decline in core goods excluding vehicles tied to tariff-related items.

For services, they expect a 0.26% m/m rise in August, supported by firmer shelter inflation and strength in areas such as vehicle maintenance, hospital and recreation services, and they also call for airfares to climb 3.2% m/m.

More like this

Sources