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Global capex shift could drive $200 billion in P&C insurance premiums
Swiss Re Institute estimates AI data center activity could generate $91 billion in cumulative premiums by 2030, with renewable energy adding about $111 billion.
A global shift toward capital expenditure heavy projects is creating a major commercial property and casualty insurance opportunity, with Swiss Re Institute projecting roughly $200 billion in cumulative premiums through 2030, driven by AI data centers and renewable energy investment, according to Risk & Insurance. The institute estimates AI data center construction and operation could produce around $91 billion in cumulative premiums by 2030, while renewable energy investment could add about $111 billion over the same period. It also forecasts that property insurance would account for more than half of data center premiums, at $49 billion, followed by engineering at $18 billion, liability at $10 billion, credit and surety at $9 billion, and marine at $5 billion.
Risk & Insurance said Swiss Re Institute links the opportunity to a broader reallocation of investment away from asset light digital businesses and toward large physical infrastructure. The report characterizes the change as not only increasing risk volume, but also shifting commercial risk structure, with higher capital intensity, greater physical asset dependence, and more infrastructure correlation. The institute also highlighted how large replacement values are becoming for specific projects. It cited that individual AI data center campuses can carry replacement values as high as $50 billion, with Meta’s Hyperion project alone surpassing $50 billion in cost, and it said semiconductor fabrication plants can reach $20 billion to $30 billion in replacement value. Risk & Insurance added that global energy investment is projected to reach $3.4 trillion in 2026 and AI related capex is expected to exceed $1 trillion, while defense spending hit a record $2.9 trillion in 2025, though the report said defense often translates unevenly into insurance demand because governments typically self insure military budgets.