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DraftKings shares drop after NFL prediction market volume data
Needham said Kalshi captured 76% of NFL Week One prediction volume, but the figures count exchange trades, not sportsbook handle, which can overstate differences.
DraftKings Inc. shares fell 7.6% on Sept. 17 after data from the first week of the NFL season highlighted how much of the prediction market volume went to Kalshi versus DraftKings's exchange, DKeX, MarketBeat Ratings said. The analysis cited that Kalshi took 76% of NFL Week One prediction market volume, compared with about 3% for DKeX. The same report connected the sell-off to DraftKings being down over 39% in 2026 and over 51% over the prior 12 months, arguing the rise of prediction markets has affected expectations for sports betting platforms.
MarketBeat Ratings said the headline gap may be exaggerated because exchange volume is not measured the same way as sportsbook handle. It noted that prediction contracts can change hands multiple times, and professional trading can increase reported notional volume without adding new customer dollars. When Needham converted the data to a consumer-equivalent basis, Kalshi's share dropped nine points to 67%, while DKeX held nearly 3%. The report also pointed to Kalshi's legal footing getting shakier in the week the data was released, and added that DraftKings estimated 80% to 90% of sports prediction volume in sportsbook states comes from professional syndicates and institutional traders. It further referenced DraftKings's Q2 2026 Sports Consumer Volume of $13.1 billion, covering sportsbook bets and prediction contracts, and said that quarter included no NFL games.