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Rhodium set for surplus as TD forecasts price declines through 2028
TD Commodity Strategy expects rhodium to swing to a 20,000-oz. surplus next year after a projected 50,000-oz. deficit this year.
TD Commodity Strategy expects rhodium prices to trend lower, with the rare metal forecast to drop from about $9,000 an ounce to $7,600 in 2027 and $6,500 in 2028, as autocatalyst demand weakens and the market moves into surplus.
Mining.com reports TD projects a 20,000-oz. surplus next year after four straight years of deficits, citing rising mine and recycled supply alongside flat to declining consumption. The bank also expects a projected deficit of about 50,000 oz. this year.
TD said the shift could have arrived earlier if production at South Africa’s Amandelbult platinum-group metals mine had not been delayed by shaft collapses in 2025. Even with the longer-term bearish outlook, exceptionally thin above-ground inventories are expected to fall to little more than three months of demand.
Mining.com adds that TD highlighted rhodium’s unusually long processing cycle as a risk factor, noting it takes more than three months to move material from mine production to refined metal, compared with a shorter time for some other steps in the supply chain.
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