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9% mortgage rates look unlikely without higher yields and wider spreads

HousingWire argues a 9% mortgage rate path would require the 10-year Treasury to rise above 6% and mortgage spreads to worsen, alongside a hawkish Fed.

Reported · Written up by our desk · Mortgages

HousingWire examines whether 9% mortgage rates are possible, arguing the “math” does not support that level under current conditions. The outlet says a move to 9% would likely require both a higher 10-year Treasury yield and wider mortgage spreads than what it describes as current market conditions.

The article outlines what would need to happen in a worst-case scenario, including mortgage spreads worsening. HousingWire also links that kind of outcome to conditions that could keep rates elevated, such as persistent conflict-related oil inflation and an economy that stays strong with limited labor softening.

HousingWire further notes that the scenario would also depend on the Federal Reserve remaining hawkish for longer. The piece says its analysis is based on a CNBC segment discussion and incorporates comments from Selma Hepp, chief economist at Cotality, about the assumptions behind a potential 9% rate path.

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