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El Niño and fertilizer costs reduce Philippines rice production forecast
The US Department of Agriculture's Foreign Agricultural Service projects 2026-27 milled rice output at 12.25 million tonnes, down from 12.36 million the prior year, and forecasts 5.2 million tonnes of imports to cover the gap.
Fertilizer costs and a moderate to strong El Niño have weighed on planting incentives in the Philippines, lowering milled rice production in 2026-27, according to a report from the Foreign Agricultural Service of the US Department of Agriculture. The agency estimates milled rice production at 12.25 million tonnes, down from 12.36 million tonnes last year.
The Foreign Agricultural Service said rice consumption in 2026-27 is estimated at 17.65 million tonnes, with demand driven by population continuing to outpace elevated retail prices.
To offset the anticipated production shortfall, imports are forecast at 5.2 million tonnes. The report also lowered corn production estimates to 8.05 million tonnes due to reduced yield tied to the same irrigation risks affecting rice.
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