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Jefferies warns reinsurance pricing softness could deepen into 2028

Jefferies says the expected pace of reinsurance price declines would accelerate next year and only start to slow at 2028 renewals, with a potential soft market floor not until 2030.

Reported · Written up by our desk · Reinsurance

Jefferies analysts say they are not confident reinsurance leadership teams are fully recognizing how quickly reinsurance rates have been softening.

They argue that, rather than continuing to focus on pricing, management teams are likely to shift attention to terms and conditions from 2028, and that a softer market floor may not arrive until 2030.

The analysts also dispute what they describe as overly hopeful expectations from reinsurer executives, saying the pace of decline may accelerate next year and only begin to slow in 2028.

Jefferies notes that reinsurer management teams have told them price declines should slow at the January 2027 reinsurance renewals, but the firm said it lacks confidence in that view.

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