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ARM resets set to rise and peak in 2027

ARMs total 3.1 million loans, or 5.6% of active mortgages, and resets are projected at 186,020 in 2027 before easing to 154,710 in 2028.

Reported · Written up by our desk · Mortgages

HousingWire reports new data from Intercontinental Exchange, or ICE, and Optimal Blue points to a moderate ramp in adjustable rate mortgage, or ARM, resets into 2027 rather than a systemic threat to the mortgage market. The outlets project reset volumes rising in 2027 and then easing in 2028.

According to ICE and Optimal Blue data, ARMs now total 3.1 million loans, representing 5.6% of active first-lien mortgages, the highest level in 5.5 years. The data also show that only about a third of active ARMs have begun adjusting because many newer ARMs are still in their introductory periods.

ICE data cited by HousingWire indicates 84,000 ARMs had reset through July 2026, with another 64,000 scheduled to reset by year end, bringing 2026 total resets to 148,000. Resets are expected to rise to 186,020 in 2027, then decline to 154,710 in 2028.

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