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TD Securities sees limited upside for the US dollar despite resilience
The firm pushed its expected Fed hike timing to December 2026 and March 2027, arguing the market has likely already priced the peak in Fed hawkishness.
FXStreet reports TD Securities says the US economy and labor market look resilient but not overheating, which is why the bank has delayed its expected Fed rate hike calls to December 2026 and March 2027.
The firm also argues that market pricing for Fed hawkishness has likely peaked, making it difficult to produce persistently bullish US dollar signals from the US data and the Fed channel alone.
Even so, TD Securities’ scorecard still ranks the dollar highest, citing favorable rate differentials, resilient growth, and strong equity performance, and it notes that long dollar positioning has remained profitable with positioning now also long dollars.