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China forecasts stable grain feed use for 2026-27 as hog herd shrinks
Corn production is forecast to rise to 306.0 million tonnes in 2026-27, while corn consumption is cut to 322.0 million tonnes due to a lower share of corn in feed rations.
China’s grain feed and residual use is forecast to remain broadly stable in 2026-27, as a smaller breeding sow herd curbs hog feed demand while growth in poultry, aquaculture, and ruminant feed offsets some of the decline, according to a Foreign Agricultural Service report cited by World Grain.
In the US Department of Agriculture’s Oct. 1 update, 2026-27 corn production in China is forecast at 306.0 million tonnes, up from 301.2 million tonnes, and corn imports are projected to recover to 6.0 million tonnes from a reduced 2025-26 estimate of 4.0 million tonnes.
The USDA lowered 2026-27 corn consumption by 1.0 million tonnes from the June forecast to 322.0 million tonnes, citing a lower-than-expected percentage of corn in feed and less-than-expected imports.
World Grain also points to the FAS data showing the ratio of corn in feed rations trending down from 47.0% in January to 29.0% in August, with hog farming losses accelerating sow herd liquidation and feed demand squeezed by corn substitutes such as wheat, barley, and sorghum.
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