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Bitcoin quantum exposure analysis highlights varying risk levels

The report estimates that while 6,900,573 BTC are marked as quantum-exposed based on on-chain public key appearance, a stricter “active and known-entity” screen reduces that to 3,331,639 BTC, or 48.3% of the exposed supply.

Reported · Written up by our desk · Market Structure

Bitcoin Magazine published an analysis of how much of Bitcoin supply may be vulnerable to a quantum attack scenario, focusing on “quantum exposure” at block 950,000.

According to the write-up, a raw on-chain scan shows 6,900,573 BTC exposed, using a cryptographic framing where exposure means a public key has appeared on-chain, but the authors caution that this does not automatically translate into economic loss risk.

The piece argues that exposure can reflect very different real-world migration abilities, noting that wallets and keys such as a live exchange wallet, an institutional multisig, a dormant early address, or an abandoned key could all be cryptographically exposed while still behaving differently.

Using an “active and known-entity” approach, the article applies an active at least 1 BTC filter, estimating 3,331,639 BTC, or 48.28% of all exposed supply, meeting that stricter threshold.

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