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Dollar Index stalls near 102.25 as Fed hawks face CPI catalyst
The Dollar Index has failed to regain its April 2025 peak even as the 10-year Treasury yield hit its highest level since 2002.
Four sessions after reaching its highest level since April 2025, the Dollar Index has stalled and is trading near 102.25, with a lower high recorded in each session since Wednesday, according to FXStreet.
The outlet links the lack of upside follow-through to a week of Fed messaging, despite Fed officials arguing for another rate hike and a 10-year Treasury yield that rose to its highest level since 2002 on Monday.
FXStreet also points to the upcoming US CPI release on October 14 as a key catalyst, while noting that Fed Governor Waller said further hikes are needed but do not have to be consecutive at back-to-back meetings. It added that Fed minutes from the September 15-16 meeting showed most officials expect another hike by year-end, aligning with a median 4.1% projection for end of 2026 and implying one more quarter-point hike from the current 3.75% to 4.00%.
FXStreet said futures pricing puts the odds of a hike at about 20% for October 28 and about 70% for December 9, reflecting the market’s read of Waller’s comments. It also notes that the Dollar Index had risen alongside the two-year Treasury yield through September.
Latest closeDollar index 102.12 ▼0.1%