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Property cat reinsurance price declines expected to slow into January 2027

J.P. Morgan expects global property catastrophe rates to fall 10–20% at the January 2027 renewals, after average declines of 12–15% at January 2026.

Reported · Written up by our desk · Reinsurance

J.P. Morgan expects the property catastrophe reinsurance market’s price declines to decelerate at the January 2027 renewals, projecting rate reductions of 10–20%, which would be less than the drop seen in prior years.

The bank said pricing remains under pressure, especially for property catastrophe, while specialty lines also face weaker terms, and it pointed to major broker indices showing global property cat rates fell 12–15% at the January 2026 renewals.

J.P. Morgan noted non-loss-impacted programmes saw reductions of up to 20% in some regions and that this trend accelerated at the mid-year renewals, though it expects some stabilisation if a major late-year catastrophe does not drive additional volatility.

Gallagher Re estimates that catastrophe losses of an incremental $50–75 billion in the second half of 2026 would be needed for the reinsurance market to make its cost of equity for 2026, providing context for how sensitive pricing could be to loss activity late in the year, according to the report.

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