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U.S. small commercial insurance market reaches about $158B in 2025
Conning estimates the market grew to roughly $158 billion of direct premium as of year-end 2025, while warning of potential headwinds.
The U.S. small commercial insurance market expanded to roughly $158 billion of direct premium as of year-end 2025, according to a Conning report cited by Risk & Insurance. The estimate was based on 2025 statutory data from S&P, using Conning’s market-sizing methodology.
Risk & Insurance reports that independent agents remain the dominant force in distributing small commercial coverage, and that earlier predictions about a large shift to online buying have not materialized.
The report also says insurers have focused competition on speed and clearer underwriting appetite, investing in tools such as prefill data, automated underwriting, and appetite APIs to improve their chances of being among the two or three quotes an agency typically considers before binding coverage.
Risk & Insurance adds that despite the market’s growth, Conning flagged potential headwinds, noting the small commercial market remains highly fragmented.