Commodities
Home›Commodities›Agriculture›Heat stress trims Pakistan wheat forecast for 2026-27
Heat stress trims Pakistan wheat forecast for 2026-27
The USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service cut its 2026-27 wheat outlook by about 680,000 tonnes after late-season heat stress and storms.
Pakistan’s wheat outlook is being pressured by recent weather shifts, with the US Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agricultural Service citing late-season heat stress and storms in a reduced production forecast.
In its July 1 report, the FAS set Pakistan’s updated wheat production forecast at 29.0 million tonnes for marketing year 2026-27, about 680,000 tonnes lower than initial projections. The estimate is also nearly 2.5 million tonnes below 2024-25 levels, the report said, while production remains in line with 2025-26.
The FAS said Pakistan has kept a ban on wheat imports, with exports also prohibited. It added that domestic wheat flour prices rose about 38% between July 2025 and January 2026, attributing the jump to stock losses and monsoon flooding in August 2025, along with procurement policy changes and market manipulation and speculative buying.
For rice, the FAS lowered the forecast to 9.1 million tonnes from 9.6 million tonnes for the current season, mainly due to reduced planted area and a projected yield of 3.9 kg/ha based on the past three years. Rice exports for 2025-26 are projected at 4.7 million tonnes, down from 5.1 million tonnes a year earlier, with the FAS pointing to regional instability near the Persian Gulf, including the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and competition from India.
Latest closeWheat $664.75 ▲0.7%