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Global Peace Index flags record conflict costs as AI shifts warfare
The report estimates conflict-related violence costs at US$21.8 trillion, 10.5% of global GDP, and projects further deterioration as AI is rapidly deployed in conflict planning and operations.
SCMP Economy points to new data from the Institute for Economics and Peace’s Global Peace Index, which assesses 163 economies and finds that conflict is worsening on multiple measures. The index says 119 economies have become less peaceful since 2008, while 103 have been involved in at least one external conflict over the past five years.
The report estimates that active, state-based conflicts rose to 61, the highest since the second world war. It also says more than 181,000 people were killed in conflicts in 2025 and about 117 million people were displaced.
It further reports that global military spending hit a record US$2.9 trillion, with the total economic cost of violence estimated at US$21.8 trillion, or 10.5% of global gross domestic product. The index predicts a steady deterioration in the coming decades, linking the outlook to continued conflict and the rapid deployment of artificial intelligence in how conflicts evolve.
SCMP Economy also connects the timing of the index to heightened tensions in international security discussions, including comments made by US President Donald Trump during a NATO summit in Turkey about Iran, European defense spending, and Greenland. The story argues that the broader risk environment is being shaped not only by policy and conflict patterns, but also by faster AI-enabled changes to conflict conduct.