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AM Best keeps stable outlook on Guatemala’s insurance market
AM Best expects Guatemala’s insurance market to keep growing within an 8% to 10% range in 2026, with risk-adjusted capitalization at the strongest level.
AM Best is maintaining a stable outlook on Guatemala’s insurance industry, citing market expansion supported by economic growth and inflation that is expected to stay under the Bank of Guatemala’s 3% to 5% target range.
The rating agency points to consistent premium growth over the past five years and says technical results have benefited from tight expense controls and updated pricing strategies. It also notes that the industry in 2025 maintained premium sufficiency, with claims and acquisition costs showing stability.
AM Best expects Guatemala’s GDP growth to moderate in 2026, but still driven by private consumption and remittance inflows. It added that while inflation is projected to tick upward, it should remain below the target range, though uncertainty is increasing.
The outlook includes downside risks from external pressures such as global trade tensions, the Middle East conflict, and more restrictive US immigration policies that could weigh on exports and remittances. AM Best also flags potential claims risk to be monitored through mid-2026 as El Niño could affect agricultural production and flood-prone areas, while it expects continued growth in the 8% to 10% range in 2026.