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Brent jumps above $85 as U.S. Iran tensions end the oil oversupply view
Industry analysts say an expected 2026 LNG oversupply will be pushed out to 2028 as the US-Iran conflict and repeated project delays hinder new LNG commissioning.
Renewed U.S.-Iran hostilities have lifted Brent crude above $85, shifting market focus away from an oversupply narrative and back toward fears of a broader global oil shortage, OilPrice reports.
The outlook also reflects limits in Middle Eastern supply and weather-driven demand, with this year’s Super El Niño pushing Asian LNG buying to its highest level in July. Imports are set to reach 23 million tonnes, according to the report, while Asia and Europe compete for available cargoes.
The scramble has also driven LNG pricing higher in Asia, with JKM up to $19.5 per MMBtu, the highest since early June. Europe has seen weaker results so far because LNG prices there have trended below JKM, and European imports are poised to fall to 6.90 million tonnes this month, a 2-year low, the outlet adds.
In gas markets, the article notes BloombergNEF expectations that an LNG glut year will be delayed, moving the first glut from 2026 to 2028. It also cites Pakistan issuing another prompt LNG tender for July delivery after Qatar’s LNG exports were cut short by last week’s attack on the Al Rekayyat LNG carrier.
Latest closeWTI crude $78.04 ▲9.3%|Brent $83.15 ▲9.4%