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China trade surplus lifts AI-driven exports, but FX impact stays muted

Societe Generale cites a $125.6bn June surplus, supported by 27.0% export growth and AI-related high-tech shipments rising more than 50% year over year.

Reported · Written up by our desk · Major Pairs

Societe Generale economists say China’s June trade surplus reached $125.62 billion, a figure they link to faster export growth and a surge in AI-related high-tech shipments. In their assessment, exports rose 27.0% year over year while imports climbed 36.0%, with high-tech categories tied to AI up more than 50%.

The report compares this pattern with similar dynamics in Korea and Taiwan, where tech-driven trade surpluses tend to be recycled into foreign assets. That recycling, it argues, can limit currency appreciation and dampen spillovers into domestic demand and broader inflation, even when nominal GDP gains are strong.

In FX trading context, FXStreet noted that the US dollar sold off after June US inflation came in below expectations, helping EUR/USD regain traction and return to the 1.1460 area. The same dollar weakness was linked to moves higher in other majors, with GBP/USD holding above 1.3350 after trimming earlier losses.

The note also referenced ongoing attention to Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s semiannual testimony, during which he reiterated a commitment to price stability and the 2.0% inflation goal. Separate market comments in the piece described gold rebounding back above $4,000 per troy ounce as the dollar weakened.

Latest closeGold $4,011.00 ▼2.3%|EUR/USD 1.139 ▼0.4%|GBP/USD 1.335 ▼0.5%

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