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EUR/USD holds near 1.1515 as US-Iran talks headline risk persists

The euro’s upside is capped as the US Dollar steadies, while focus shifts to this week’s JOLTS, ADP, and Friday nonfarm payrolls for clues on the Fed’s path.

Reported · Written up by our desk · Major Pairs

EUR/USD traded in a narrow range on Monday, around 1.1515 after reaching an intraday high of 1.1558, according to FXStreet. The move reflected a wait for clarity on US-Iran negotiations, after a weekend statement by President Donald Trump said he called off a planned strike, with negotiations expected to begin Monday. However, an Iranian foreign ministry spokesperson said Tehran is not currently holding talks with Washington, keeping uncertainty elevated.

FXStreet noted that any potential euro rebound was limited as signs of stabilization in the US Dollar capped the Euro’s upside following recent weakness linked to intervention. Traders also weighed business activity data from the US and euro zone, with the US ISM Manufacturing PMI rising to 55.6 in July from 53.3 in June, beating expectations of 54.0 and marking the highest reading since May 2022, while the Eurozone Manufacturing PMI improved to 51.9 from 51.4 but missed forecasts.

The stronger US data offered some support to the dollar, with the US Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback versus a basket of six major currencies, trading around 99.84 after rebounding from an intraday low of 99.42, FXStreet reported. Economists at DBS described a potentially “bleak” August dollar outlook, citing a Fed seen as reluctant to hike, coordinated US-Japan currency interventions, and a cooling geopolitical landscape.

Attention then turns to US employment data that could influence expectations for Federal Reserve policy, the outlet said. JOLTS Job Openings is due Tuesday, ADP Employment Change Wednesday, and nonfarm payrolls on Friday, which measures changes in US employment excluding farming and can move Fed decision making.

Latest closeEUR/USD 1.153 ▲0.5%|Dollar index 99.80 ▼0.2%

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