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Bitcoin needs a 92.2% rebound to make last year’s $120K buyers whole
Glassnode data showed key on-chain breakevens near $72,200 and $76,600, and it said Bitcoin’s move toward $64,000 has lacked broad conviction due to weak spot participation and activity.
Bitcoin investors who bought $1,000 when BTC was above $120,000 last year are sitting on a 47.98% loss and would need a 92.2% rebound to get back to breakeven before fees, according to on-chain analysis cited by CryptoSlate.
The July 2025 milestone pushed Bitcoin above $120,000 to a record $123,165, followed by a later all-time high of $126,198 on Oct. 6, 2025. CryptoSlate highlighted that while the market is far below those peaks, the first major pressure points are lower, anchored to cohort cost bases.
Glassnode’s Week 27 research placed the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis near $72,200 and the True Market Mean near $76,600, levels CryptoSlate said could act as “escape routes” for some holders if demand is strong enough to absorb potential selling. CryptoSlate also noted Glassnode said Bitcoin’s push toward $64,000 lacked broad conviction, citing weak spot participation and on-chain activity.
Subsequent Glassnode updates described incremental improvement but still characterized the bottom as a work in progress, with long-term-holder capitulation cooling after June lows were absorbed. CryptoSlate also pointed to continued downside risk, noting Glassnode said a lower bear-market band near $53,000 Realized Price remained possible and that the bottom was still unconfirmed.
Latest closeBitcoin $64,407.92 ▼0.5%