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Bitcoin supply in loss crosses 50%, implying countdown to a bottom

Crypto research K33 Research says the bear-market bottom typically arrives no more than 101 days after supply in loss passes 50%, with June 5 now followed by 42 days.

Reported · Written up by our desk · Market Structure

Bitcoin has been tracking a multi week countdown to a potential bear market bottom after an on chain metric called supply in loss crossed the 50% threshold, according to data highlighted by K33 Research.

Cointelegraph reports that K33’s H1 2026 Round Up found more than half of BTC supply is now held at a loss, and that in past bear markets the bottom has generally come within 101 days after supply in loss passes 50%.

The outlet says Bitcoin’s 50% crossing occurred on June 5, and that 42 days have elapsed since then, placing 2026’s current bottom window among the longest on record.

Cointelegraph also points to CryptoQuant commentary that the realized cap variance model is in its bottom 6% of historical readings, with a standardized Z score of negative 2.35 suggesting conditions consistent with the later stages of a bear market.

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