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Brent oil whipsaws as Hormuz, Red Sea threats raise supply risks
Brent traded around $89 a barrel after a more than 20% monthly rally, with Goldman forecasting Brent could exceed $120 by the fourth quarter if Hormuz disruptions persist.
Brent oil was volatile after rallying more than 20% over the month, as traders weighed escalating risks to tanker traffic from the Strait of Hormuz to the Red Sea. The global benchmark traded around $89 a barrel, moving between small gains and losses as the outlook for conflict escalations and de-escalation shifted.
The risk picture included a 10th straight day of US strikes on Iran, after President Donald Trump said Tehran “will pay” for killing American soldiers. A ship carrying oil products was also hit, reflecting continued Iranian attempts to target vessels crossing Hormuz.
In the Red Sea, Yemen’s Houthi militants threatened to blockade Saudi Arabia’s maritime traffic, adding pressure to supply routes tied to the top OPEC producer. The Red Sea route supports Saudi exports via a pipeline that bypasses the Strait of Hormuz, while disruptions were also noted at Russia’s Caspian Pipeline Consortium terminal that ships most of Kazakhstan’s oil.
Saudi Arabia has increased exports from Yanbu, its key Red Sea export hub, with about 2.5 million barrels a day described as at risk from Houthi attacks. Goldman Sachs said Brent could exceed $120 a barrel by the fourth quarter if Hormuz disruptions persist, though its base view is for $80 in the final three months of the year.
Latest closeBrent $84.94 ▼0.0%