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Houthi blockade threat raises odds of Red Sea supply disruption

Analysts warned a full closure of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait could disrupt about 7.4 million barrels per day, roughly 7.0% of global oil output, citing Kpler data.

Reported · Written up by our desk · Energy

Asia’s oil buyers face renewed shipping risk after Iran-aligned Houthi militants threatened to impose a naval blockade on Saudi Arabia, adding to already severe disruptions linked to the US-Iran conflict. The concern centers on the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, the southern gateway to the Red Sea. Analysts cited by SCMP Economy warned that serious disruption there could leave fewer routes for Middle Eastern crude, threatening Saudi shipments and increasing the risk that oil prices could rise above US$100 per barrel again.

SCMP Economy reported that the Houthis framed the blockade threat as retaliation for Saudi Arabia’s 12-year restrictions on movement of food, medicine and other essential goods through Yemeni crossings, ports and airports, along with what they described as plundering of local resources. According to Kpler data cited by Reuters, a full closure of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait could disrupt petroleum flows of about 7.4 million barrels per day, around 7.0% of global oil output. SCMP Economy also said a Saudi-led coalition vowed to respond firmly to threats against commercial shipping and began implementing measures to protect vessels transiting the strait.

SCMP Economy added that uncertainty has deepened for Asian consumers because the Strait of Hormuz remains the main outlet for Gulf oil exports, and shipping through Hormuz has already slowed sharply since the US-Iran conflict escalated. Rystad Energy said the lack of clarity on enforcement does not remove evidence from prior Houthi actions against commercial vessels.

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