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Polymarket prices Clarity Act odds at 43% after reported ethics deal
Predictions markets lifted the chance the Clarity Act becomes law in 2026 to about 43%, up from 32% on Friday, while the bill text had not been publicly released.
CoinDesk reports Polymarket traders sharply increased the implied odds that the Clarity Act will become law this year after unverified reports that President Trump accepted an ethics provision that had stalled the bill. The shift came even though no bill text has been made public and Democrats say they have not seen it.
According to CoinDesk, the market pricing for the bill’s 2026 passage rose to about 43% on Monday, compared with 32% on Friday, marking a move from its record-low level seen earlier last week. CoinDesk also notes the odds change followed reports that the final negotiating obstacle had been cleared, while the White House and the offices of the senators involved did not comment.
CoinDesk says the ethics dispute centers on how much top officials can profit from crypto while in office, amid scrutiny of Trump’s memecoins and his family’s World Liberty Financial stake. Financial disclosures cited by CoinDesk last month showed Trump earned millions from that stake, and the provision was discussed during a July 16 meeting with Trump, Republican Senators Bernie Moreno and Cynthia Lummis, and White House crypto adviser Patrick Witt.
The Clarity Act, as described by CoinDesk, would create the first comprehensive federal framework for digital assets and split oversight between the SEC and the CFTC. CoinDesk adds that the Senate has until early August to vote, and following the Polymarket move, major tokens including bitcoin, ether, and XRP rose, though traders largely pointed to strength in AI and semiconductor stocks.
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