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Supply disruptions raise risk to Brent valuations into August
ING flags about 1.7 million bpd loaded in June via Kazakhstan’s CPC terminal as a potential pressure point if outages persist.
ING strategists Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey said oil supply disruptions across the Middle East and Black Sea are increasingly supporting Brent prices, with several distinct risks tied to shipping routes and loading points.
They pointed to exposure for Saudi crude exports via the Red Sea, renewed tensions in the Persian Gulf, and halted Kazakhstan flows through Russia’s CPC terminal, noting that longer disruptions into August could keep the market tight.
ING argued that Brent around just over US$91 per barrel may be undervalued if disruptions continue, while it said refined products remain structurally tight.
The strategists also cited the US completing an 11th consecutive night of strikes against Iran, and they described a Houthi maritime blockade announcement for Saudi Arabia that could force tankers to avoid the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, adding time and expense to voyages to Asia.
Latest closeWTI crude $87.52 ▲3.1%|Brent $94.43 ▲3.8%